Estuary Airport - hot potato, fig leaf, or white elephant?

NEWSFLASH: the real reasons Flybe quit Manston - click HERE

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Wise words from Paul Francis on the awful consequences of realpolitik and the persistence of dumb ideas. The sudden (re)launch of the estuary airport idea has more to do with Boris' mayoral election bid and recent unemployment figures than strategic infrastructure planning. And then there is the blind faith that an airport automatically translates into employment and regeneration. These apparently impulsive pronouncements from politicians rarely mention the downsides of aviation, and never touch on the fact that aviation itself does not have a long-term future - when the oil runs out, what use is an airport?

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There will be considerable dismay in some quarters that the Prime Minister appears to have agreed that the idea of an airport in the Thames Estuary should be fully investigated. But there ought not to be surprise - even if opponents will throw back at him his declaration more than a year ago that the government had 'no plans' to build such an airport. A similar commitment was given to the Rochester and Strood MP Mark Reckless by new transport secretary Justine Greening in precisely the same terms.

But it was George Osborne who paved the way for the idea of examining the scheme in November when he announced the government would 'explore all the options' for tackling the problems around aviation capacity. Even so, today's news will be seen as a U-turn and a politically awkward one given the deep hostility among his own MPs in Kent.

It is worth pointing out that there has never been any likelihood the government itself would 'build' an airport - that would be for private investment consortiums.

Some will see it as a shot in the arm for Boris Johnson's campaign to be re-elected as London Mayor although I've never been persuaded that aviation capacity is something that preoccupies London voters as much as issues like tube fares or crime. Politically, Mr Cameron will have to confront the fact that among the county's Conservative MPs, there is universal opposition. The Conservative controlled Medway Council remains wholly unconvinced - although there have been recent hints that Kent County Council may not be quite as implacably opposed as it once might have been. 

He may also be seen as having performed an about-turn and of betraying those who took him at his word that the government was not interested in the idea. Never an ideal position for a PM or for backbenchers who, in some cases, have marginal seats to defend in 2015.

What has changed? Underlying the news appears to be the feeling that aside from addressing the problem of capacity, a new airport would deliver a huge jobs boost and regenerate a part of the south east in a way no other project could conceivably get close to. Perhaps it is no coincidence the news has come out on the day that unemployment figures have shown another rise in both Kent and Medway.

Those arguments will inevitably have to be balanced against the fact that an airport would have huge environmental consequences. One thing is clear from today's news. Whatever one thinks of the idea, it can no longer be dismissed as 'pie in the sky.'

Paul on Politics, by political editor Paul Francis Wednesday, January 18 2012

Boris shoots own foot in sympathy

NEWSFLASH: the real reasons Flybe quit Manston - click HERE

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'Boris Island' airport plan grounded over Johnson's briefing to Telegraph

An artist's impression of Norman Foster's design for a new four-runway airport on the Thames estuary

Downing Street told Boris Johnson on Wednesday that he had killed off any moves towards an airport in the Thames Estuary ahead of the next general election after an announcement by the London mayor was seized on by the Liberal Democrats. 

David Cameron and George Osborne, who have become alarmed by growing business anxiety about their opposition to expanding Heathrow, had indicated they were warm about a new airport which would assume Heathrow's role as a hub.

But the London mayor was told that he had handed a gift to the Lib Dems, who are opposed to any airport expansion in the south-east, when he briefed the Daily Telegraph that Downing Street had signed up to his proposal. A Whitehall source said:

"Boris is not going to get it. Yes to scoping on a new airport, but he won't get it. The way this has plopped out in the Telegraph, no doubt via Boris's team, has given people a chance to kill it."

The Lib Dems will support a consultation by Justine Greening, the transport secretary, on how to maintain a hub, but they will oppose any new airport. A Lib Dem source said:

"We are against airport expansion in the south-east. We are happy to go along with the consultation, but we have a policy which will not change."

Johnson was upbeat on Wednesday evening after he outlined his plans to a meeting of the Conservative 1922 committee.

"We must not count our chickens or over-egg this – to continue with a chicken metaphor – [but] the government is still looking at all the options. But George really gets the point about regeneration and jobs in the Thames estuary and the amazing capacity of a big transport hub to drive Britain's competitiveness for a long time to come."

The proposed airport would be an international hub that could open up new routes to south-east Asia and have capacity for connecting flights. At present, the British aviation industry says the nation is losing out to rivals airports such as Schiphol in Amsterdam and Charles de Gaulle in Paris. The government has ruled out a third runway at Heathrow, as has Labour since leaving power, a current political reality that has been reluctantly accepted by the industry.

Colin Matthews, the chief executive of airports operator BAA, said he was "pleased there was an acknowledgement that there was a need" for more airport capacity, but it would take decades to construct a whole new airport.

"The recognition today is that it matters to the UK economy, to jobs and to growth. There's no reason why any option should be ruled out."

Greening, however, has also ruled out further runways at Gatwick and Stansted in answers to parliamentary questions. Johnson told the BBC:

"You can't go on expecting Britain to compete with France and Germany when we simply can't supply the flights to growth destinations."

Heathrow, he said, was "fundamentally in the wrong place". He said listening to the "Heathrow recidivists" who argue that other options for airport expansion take too long would only lead to paralysis.

In his autumn statement, Osborne indicated the government would consider all options for airport expansion, which he sees as an opportunity for economic regeneration.

The architect Norman Foster has drawn up plans for an airport on the Isle of Grain, the easternmost point of the Hoo peninsula, with four runways and which could handle 150m passengers a year – double the current number passing through Heathrow. It is the latest in a range of proposals dating back decades for the estuary, including a mooted "Boris Island" airport at nearby Shivering Sands.

Aircraft would, however, have to contend with the multitudes of birds that flock in the area – a hazard to aviation and an issue that has brought opposition from environmental groups. The RSPB said it was a vital habitat for wildfowl and wading birds. Balpa, the pilots' union, said it would seek reassurances on the dangers posed by birdstrikes, as well as potential air traffic conflicts with Brussels, Heathrow and London City airports.

Guardian 18th Jan 2012