Trevor wants a Parkway

NEWSFLASH: the real reasons Flybe quit Manston - click HERE

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Kent Online's business editor Trevor Sturgess argues for a Parkway station and high speed rail links, but I think he's missed a few relevant points [my comments are bracketed in italics].

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Flybe’s decision to pull out of Manston is another blow to the airport, especially disappointing at the turn of the year. However attractive we in Kent think Manston is, it seems that not enough people agree.

Flybe’s bold experiment to run flights to Edinburgh, Manchester and Belfast was welcomed, but once again it ends in disappointment. The Manchester service was pulled some time ago, and the Belfast operation was grounded at the end of the summer. Edinburgh has been popular with leisure flyers, students, servicemen and women, and some business folk. But the lack of a day round trip made it inconvenient for business. It was a similar disappointment a few years ago when the Irish-based airline EUjet went belly-up after stretching itself over too many services.

[Business sense, and common sense, meant that Flybe reserved its prime slots at Manchester, Edinburgh and Belfast for the flights that they knew were going to be full. This meant that flights offering same day turnaround were not available for Manston. This is simply another example of success breeding success, and the devil take the hindmost. This is a problem that Manston will always face - they will have to make the most of the scraps and crumbs offered to them, at least to start with.]

So despite the smiles on the ebullient airport CEO Charles Buchanan, Manston has a problem with scheduled passenger services. What message does Flybe's decision send to other would-be operators? Manston has no difficulty with freight - including horses through its new equine centre - and charter flights to holiday places in the summer do pretty well. Car parking is a breeze. Two minutes after unloading the boot, you are in the terminal.

[Manston has the same difficulty with freight as it does with passengers – not enough. The holiday charter flights are seasonal, and few in number. The ease of parking and rapid access to the terminal are both a direct result of Manston being a tiny airport. If Manston does grow in line with its business plan, to the point where it's handling 3 million passengers in 2018, the car park will have to be larger, the walk will be longer, and checking in will be take longer. This is the downside of growth.]

Yet there just doesn’t seem to be a big enough market for scheduled services. Why is this? OK, the downturn has not helped but there must surely be something more fundamental than that. One factor is constrained night-time flying. Thanet council should back the airport's modest demands, despite opposition from some residents. It would, after all, be good for jobs and local people desperately need them. Manston ought to be the solution to over-crowding at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted. But the Kent terminal with one of the longest runways in the UK has been largely overlooked in official reports, even though senior Kent people are always talking up its credentials.

[The long-standing ban on scheduled night flights is not what prevents the airport being a success. Easyjet went to Southend airport – which doesn't have night flights. London City airport and Belfast airport, both very successful, are shut overnight.

The airport's demands are not modest – they are asking for an unlimited number of flights between 11pm and 7am. The only restriction they are suggesting is between 11:30pm and 6am.

There is no evidence that night flights would be good for jobs – quite the reverse. The 3,000 jobs that Manston says it will create by 2018 is an absurd overestimate. The few hundred jobs that it might create will be easily exceeded by the number of jobs lost in the local tourism industry.

Incidentally, the length of Manston runway is no longer the advantage that it once was, as more efficient modern planes can take off and land in shorter distances.]

Manston’s disadvantage is that it’s more than 60 miles from London. At the eastern end of the UK, It is not surrounded by chimney pots.  But remote airports are not seen as a disadvantage by the likes of Ryanair and EasyJet who bus people miles from a cheap out-of-town terminal.

[Now at last we get to the heart of the matter. Location, location, location.

Ryanair and easyJet can take advantage of "remote airports" if and only if they are the closest airports to the passengers' ultimate destination. East Kent is not a popular destination for air passengers, London is. The huge number of passengers London attracts will inevitably and understandably use the airports that are more convenient.

So Manston loses out as an airport for arrivals, and it also loses out as an airport for departures. Again it's down to location. If you draw a 30 mile circle around any successful passenger airport, you will find that the circle is full of people. If you draw a 30 mile circle around Manston, you will find that 75% of it is full of seawater. There aren't enough people living near enough Manston for it to succeed.

To be a successful passenger airport, you don't need night flights, you need passengers.]

Roads like the Thanet Way are pretty good but potential customers from South East London probably think they are worse than they are. So make it easy.  A Manston Parkway station and dedicated high-speed railway –a “Manston Express?” – would make a huge difference. The Regional Growth Fund allocated some welcome cash for a track upgrade. For a fraction of the cost of a Boris Island or Foster's Grain proposal, upgraded links would transform Manston's image. It would be great to see politicians "getting it" in 2012.

[Manston airport and KCC applied to the Regional Growth Fund for £10 million to build a Parkway station (and a £600,000 sweetener to persuade KLM to use the airport). They were turned down flat. The government decided that the forecast number of passengers did not justify a station, and in any case the spur to Manston airport would slow down the trains on the recently upgraded line to Ramsgate.]

But the sad truth at the moment is that investors - and other scheduled operators - will be wary of committing to a terminal that keeps suffering setbacks.

The Business Blog, Trevor Sturgess 28th Dec 2011

Flybe quit Manston: analysis

Too few passengers

Flybe's decision makes it absolutely clear – Manston does not have the makings of a successful passenger airport.

The current owners of Manston airport (Infratil) have always pushed the story that they want Manston to be a mixed passenger and freight airport. We know that Ryanair and easyJet have both examined Manston airport carefully in the past. They both came to the same conclusion: if Manston airport was 10 miles further West, it would have a large enough catchment area to have the potential to succeed as a passenger airport.

However, given that it is not practical to move the airport, the fact remains that 75% of its catchment area lies in the North Sea. This is a simple and inescapably obvious fact that has been overlooked or ignored by Manston's owners ever since it was privatised.

Too few airlines

Infratil has also always made it clear that the passenger element of the passenger/freight mix would be provided by the low-cost no-frills carriers such as Ryanair, easyJet and Flybe. As far as we know, Ryanair has not seriously considered operating out of Manston. Easyjet would presumably have considered Manston before finally choosing Southend airport this summer as the base for its new routes to Europe.

Flybe has run routes from Manston to Manchester, Edinburgh and Belfast. The Manchester flights were scratched earlier this year, and now Flybe has decided to scratch the Edinburgh and Belfast flights. It is worth noting that all three routes showed realistic promise – they are well-populated, have active business centres, and are tourist attractions in their own right.

Too small a catchment area

In all fairness, the timings and frequencies of the flights as scheduled could have been better, but Flybe presented Manston with a reasonable chance to succeed. Manston failed because 75% of its catchment area lies in the North Sea, and fish don't have much use for planes. As Flybe's spokesman put it:

It is fair to say that Manston is one of the airports with the smaller catchment areas in the United Kingdom, and you have Gatwick not too far away.

Just six weeks ago, shortly after Flybe's second profit warning in five months, Flybe's chairman Jim French declared an end to the boom in domestic air travel and reported a deepening drop in demand, citing a "very, very flat situation across the industry".

Both Flybe and the airport have referred to the tough economic conditions that have caused Flybe to review its 200 routes, but the brutally simple fact is that it is only the Manston routes that have been cut.

Night flights

Nowhere in any of their press releases do Flybe make any reference to night flights having any bearing on their decision. The Edinburgh and Belfast flights are being scratched because there weren't enough passengers, despite the active marketing in Scotland and Kent, which Flybe has attributed to the challenging economic environment.

It is worth noting, incidentally, that Flybe operate a number of routes out of George Best Belfast City Airport. They fly to Aberdeen, Benbecula, Birmingham, Bristol, Campbeltown, Cardiff, Dundee, East Midlands, Edinburgh, Exeter, Glasgow International, Guernsey, Inverness, Islay, Isle of Man, Jersey, Kirkwall, Leeds Bradford, London Gatwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Newquay, Norwich, Southampton, Stornoway, Sumburgh, Tiree, and Wick - and that's just the UK destinations.

George Best Belfast City Airport has no night flights, as flights are banned between 9:30pm and 6:30am. A ban on night flights does not prevent an airport being successful - but an absence of passengers does. Which brings us neatly to Charles Buchanan's assertion in the recent Gazette article that:

The decision by Flybe reinforces the need for the airport's proposals for limited and managed scheduled night-time flights to be agreed with Thanet District Council in order to compete with other national and regional airports.

Flybe's decision does nothing of the sort. Flybe's decision is simply further evidence that Manston cannot attract and retain passenger airlines for the simple reason that it cannot provide enough passengers.

Manston's ambition to be a mixed passenger and freight airport can never be realised. Manston is hoping to attract more freight business by being open throughout the night, and thus becoming the only 24-hour freight airport in the south-east. That's what the night flights are for - they are not for easy access to cheap sunshine holidays, they are for night freight.

Manston dragging its heels over night flights

No haste = no need

OK, let's just make sure we've got this straight...

The night flights that Manston is hankering after have been portrayed as essential, crucial, make-or-break. Without them, so we are told, the airport won't be able to deliver on its fairytale Master Plan.

I find this VERY hard to square with (a) any facts in the real world, and (b) the airport's conduct over the last year. If night flights really did matter so much, why would they spend a YEAR dragging their heels?

Sep 2010: Manston submits its night flying proposal, backed up by the report it commissioned from Bickerdike Allen. A shambolic public meeting at Chatham House demonstrates the unpopularity of night flights, and makes Bill Hayton a household name for all the wrong reasons.

Oct 2010: Ramsgate Town Council has its own mini-consultation and rejects night flights.

Nov 2010: TDC get a technical review report from consultancy Bureau Veritas on the airport's proposals, which concludes that the costs outweigh the benefits. TDC cancels the public consultation on the day it was supposed to start, stating that Manston's proposals were too unclear and lacked economic justification.

May 2011: Local elections. Part 1 of the York Aviation report, commissioned by the airport, supposedly providing economic justifications for night flights is published.

Jun 2011: EasyJet snuggle up to Southend airport and launch a range of European services. Southend doesn't have night flights.

Aug 2011: Part 2 of the York Aviation report, commissioned by the airport, supposedly providing economic justifications for night flights, is leaked to the press and (presumably) given to TDC. No sign of it in public yet. Charles Buchanan appears on TV, predicting a night flight application "next month".

Sep 2011: It is next month. There is no application, yet. There is a meeting of the Airport Working Party on Wed 28th Sept. Surely, Manston isn't planning to release its next night flight application after the AWP meets? That could easily be seen as a crass attempt to exploit the Council's timetable.

Increasing interest in Southend Airport

It seems that Stobart Group (owners of Southend Airport) are now starting to reap the benefits of their substantial investment in the airport. Unlike Infratil (owners of Manston Airport) they invested their own money, rather than seeking public subsidies.

While Infratil scrimped on monitoring equipment, and belatedly installed new radar only when co-funded by Vattenfall (the windfarm people), Stobart Group put their money where their mouth is and forked out for a new control tower, railway station, etc to the tune of £60m.

The upshot is that they have managed to snatch easyJet from Manston's jaws, and this may be a tipping point for both airports. Southend is now attracting interest from a wider range of operators - these two appear to be "virtual operators" that act as a re-badging/marketing umbrella for a number of other operators.

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Two new airlines could be on their way to Southend Airport, hot on the heels of easyJet. The Echo can reveal continental firms Join Airlines and ViaTriskel, which are yet to start operating, have ambitious plans to fly from Southend to a number of European destinations in France, Holland and Germany.

Starting this autumn, Dutch airline Join wants to travel from Southend to Manchester, Amsterdam, Cologne/Bonn in Germany, Caen in France and Gronningen in northern Holland, which all have connections further afield. Join will use two turbo-prop planes, with 50 and 76 seats, and one jet with 108 seats. It will lease planes and crew from fellow Dutch-based airline Denim Air. Join project director, Bernard Jacobs, said:

“We are considering London Southend Airport as an important hub for Join to develop. The market focus will be more on business-related regional traffic. We hope to be able to start first operations this autumn. The announcement of easyJet starting operations at Southend as well is good news for all of us. It helps very much in creating awareness of Southend Airport as an ideal alternative to London’s airports.”

The second airline to express an interest is ViaTriskel, based in central France. ViaTriskel will initially operate from Chateauroux in central France and Waterford, Ireland, before looking to move to Southend as its third base. A route map shows nine destinations from Southend to Amsterdam, Cologne, Alsace, Chateauroux, Caen, Devon and Cornwall, Waterford, Dublin and Liverpool. ViaTriskel plans to offer a twice-weekly service to most destinations from each of its bases and will use medium-sized turboprop planes, with room for 46 passengers.

Alastair Welch, the airport’s managing director, said more announcements of flights from Southend were due. He added:

“We talk to airlines and potential airline start-up organisations very often. Most of these conversations and enquiries bear no fruit and it would be wrong to speculate on any possible future routes. But I can say the announcement about easyJet won’t be the last announcement of new routes from the airport in the run-up to the Olympics.”

The three confirmed easyJet destinations are Ibiza, Barcelona and Faro. The other seven are expected to be Madrid, Milan, Amsterdam, Berlin, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Belfast.

Echo News 21st Jun 2011

EasyJet commits to Southend Airport

Some interesting things to note here:

• 800,000 passengers = 150 airport jobs
• EasyJet chose Southend in preference to Manston
• Stobart Group have invested £60m of their own money in the airport

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London to get its sixth international airport in Southend - just in time for the Olympics

The budget airline easyJet unveiled ambitious plans yesterday to transform Southend-on-Sea airport into a rival for Gatwick and Stansted. It means London will be served by a sixth international airport in time for the 2012 Olympics.

EasyJet will carry around 800,000 passengers in the first 12 months at its new Southend base, three miles from the seafront of the Essex resort. This is set to rise to two million a year by 2020, making London Southend Airport almost as big as the capital's City Airport. Currently private jets and charter flights take off from the airfield - although there are a few commercial flights to Ireland.

Under a ten-year partnership with the airport's owners, Stobart Group, easyJet is to start flights at Southend from April next year. A multi-million-pound terminal is due to open at the airport this autumn. Airport bosses said passengers would never wait more than four minutes to clear security, and trains from a new station nearby would get them to central London in an hour. "It really is a case of 'the only way is Essex'," said easyJet, referring to the reality-TV programme about the county.

But some residents are not amused and are taking legal action against plans to extend the runway. Denis Walker, of the Stop Airport Extension Now group, said:

'There are 20,000 houses under the flight path, and the noise is a big issue for residents, many of whom live very close to the runway.'

The Southend expansion will create about 300 jobs, half with the airline and half at the airport. It will serve a range of destinations in Europe, including Barcelona and Ibiza. Catherine Lynn, easyJet's customer and revenue director, said:

'In summer 2012 we're expecting to see huge demand from passengers right around Europe to come to London. We expect easyJet to fly more people into London next summer than any other airline, and Southend will be the closest large airport to the Olympics. We're going to maintain our regular services — this is an opportunity to increase our capacity.'

Three new routes have already been confirmed — Barcelona, Faro and Ibiza — but other destinations expected to be served from Southend include Madrid, Milan, Amsterdam, Berlin, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Belfast. Flights from Southend will go to Barcelona, Faro and Ibiza initially.

The airline says it expects to attract many holidaymakers heading to the Spanish resorts but also those wanting to go on city breaks and business travellers. Three Airbus A319 jets will be based at Southend. It says flights will be 20 minutes shorter than from the other big London airports because Southend is clear of the air traffic congestion over much of London. Managing director Alastair Welch said:

'Our size means no passenger will ever queue for more than four minutes for security, and as we've designed the airport only for short-haul travel, with 10 aircraft stands, there won't be long distances to travel through the terminal.'

The airport will be served by a new railway station with eight trains an hour making the 52-minute journey to Liverpool Street. The airport is owned by the Stobart Group, the trucking firm, which paid £21m for it in 2008. It has invested £60m on a new control tower, a runway extension, a new terminal building due to be finished this autumn and the railway station. A new hotel is due to open next year.

The regeneration will create about 300 new jobs, half with the airline and half at the airport. Stobart is promising that passengers carrying hand luggage only will get from plane to train in 15 minutes, and Ms Lynn added:

'The journey time into the city centre will be really competitive. On an inbound basis we're expecting a very healthy proportion of business travellers.'

But angry residents have launched a legal action against plans to extend the runway. Denis Walker of the Stop Airport Extension Now group said:

'Transport is a big issue as our roads are already heavily congested. There is a train station being built but I think the majority of people won't want to have to take their cases on the train. 20,000 houses are under the flight path, and the noise is a big issue for residents, many of whom live very close to the runway.'

The group, which has more than 300 members, claims 60% of residents oppose the plans to expand the airport, and also hit out at the 'extremely small' number of jobs the plan will create.

Southend was Britain's third biggest airport half a century ago and served as the initial base for Sir Freddy Laker's pioneering cut-price New York service. However, it fell into rapid decline with the rise of Gatwick and Stansted and now has only a handful of flights a week to Jersey and to Galway and Waterford in Ireland. It is close to the mid-Thames estuary site suggested as an alternative to Heathrow by Boris Johnson.

Other locals welcomed the decision but raised concerns about extra traffic. Andy Innell, 50, owner of the Pier West café, said: 'It's wonderful news. It will bring more money to businesses in the town.

'I'm sure some people who objected to the expansion will not be happy but they don't want an airport there in the first place. Personally I think it's fantastic news. I'm sure some of the people using the airport will come into town and spend their money. I'm very pleased.'

Daily Mail 17th Jun 2011