CPRE aren't impressed

Night flights at Manston have been an extremely contentious issue for many Thanet residents. Some believe that allowing the flights will bring economic prosperity to the area, with much needed local employment opportunities. Others believe that it is unlikely that many jobs will be created.

We took the stance some time ago that we did not believe allowing night flights would bring any real economic benefit to the residents of Thanet, and may in fact bring real harm to the area due to the impacts of noise and air pollution.

We are glad to see that we have been justified in this view by a recently published report authored on behalf of Thanet District Council by Parsons Brinkerhoff, a leading transport consultancy.

This report, which is based on an examination of the documents submitted by Infratil, clearly brings into doubt many of their claims.  Parsons Brinkerhoff indicates that Infratil's views of the economic benefits are wildly over-optimistic, while the impacts of noise - the major concern of residents in the area - have been seriously understated. 

These two points alone vindicate the local opposition groups, whose concerns have been regarded by some as backward-looking and 'nimby-ism'.

The fact that Flybe are pulling out in March because they cannot fill planes is damning proof of the lack of demand for flights out of Manston. We simply cannot see how allowing night flights will help Manston grow as a passenger airport, and therefore generate both jobs and economic sustainability for the area.

In light of this recent report, CPRE Protect Kent would ask that there be a full and unrestricted public consultation before any night flights are allowed.  This should be open and transparent, with all the facts available.

This will enable the people of East Kent to weigh up the benefits and disadvantages of night flights and lobby Thanet District Council accordingly. It is only right they be given this opportunity, as it is their communities and environment that will be significantly affected by the implementation of night flights.

CPRE Protect Kent, Jamie Weir 25th Jan 2012

Flybe, Manston, night flights and the truth

We wondered whether night flights would have made a difference to Flybe's decision to quit Manston.

After all, Charles Buchanan's constant message in the media is that night flights are essential to the airport's long-term commercial success, and Flybe is exactly the kind of high volume passenger carrier that Manston wants to attract (and keep).

So had the lack of scheduled night flights made Manston less attractive? Would scheduled night flights have persuaded Flybe to stay?

So we asked them...

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Hi Flybe,

Nice to talk to you just now, and thanks for offering to get me an answer to my question about Flybe leaving Manston airport.

I'd like to know if it would have made a difference to Flybe's decision to leave if the local authority, Thanet District Council, had agreed to allow night-time flying at Manston.

What was the main reason for Flybe deciding to pull out of Manston?

Best wishes,

NNF

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Hi NNF,

Thanks for your email.

Please see below for the statement available from Flybe regarding Manston Airport.

Best Wishes,

Flybe

Simon Lilley, Flybe’s Director of Marketing, comments:

“It is with regret that Flybe can confirm it will cease its operations from Manston International Airport with effect from the end of IATA Winter season on March 25th, 2012.

“Flybe carefully reviews the viability of all our 200 plus routes on a regular basis looking not only at passenger numbers but also at external cost pressures. This is done not only to monitor where we can offer increased regularity on a given route but also where passenger numbers make a flight uneconomic.

“Our ongoing commitment to Manston has been reliant on the success of the Edinburgh service that we launched in May 2010.  Despite extensive marketing of this route both in Scotland and throughout SE England, the challenging economic environment with which we are all faced has meant passenger numbers remain at unsustainable levels, and are insufficient to financially justify its continued operation.

“All passengers who have booked flights online for next summer will be contacted by Flybe and offered a full refund or re-accommodated on alternate flights; and in the interim we look forward to welcoming on board those passengers who continue to book and use our Edinburgh service from now through to the end of March.”

-Ends-

Issued by Flybe press office

T: 0845 675 0681

E: pressoffice@flybe.com

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Hi Flybe,

I still need to know about Flybe's attitude to night flights. If Thanet Council had agreed to all night flying would Flybe have stayed at Manston? This is what some of the councillors are asserting and I need to know how much truth there is in it.

It looks from your statement that Flybe went for wider economic reasons than just the night flights but I do need you to state something about it!

So the direct question is: if there had been more night flights allowed at Manston Airport would Flybe have stayed there? Yes or No?

Best wishes,

NNF

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Hi NNF,

Thanks for your note – the answer would be no.

Kind Regards,

Flybe

Trevor wants a Parkway

NEWSFLASH: the real reasons Flybe quit Manston - click HERE

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Kent Online's business editor Trevor Sturgess argues for a Parkway station and high speed rail links, but I think he's missed a few relevant points [my comments are bracketed in italics].

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Flybe’s decision to pull out of Manston is another blow to the airport, especially disappointing at the turn of the year. However attractive we in Kent think Manston is, it seems that not enough people agree.

Flybe’s bold experiment to run flights to Edinburgh, Manchester and Belfast was welcomed, but once again it ends in disappointment. The Manchester service was pulled some time ago, and the Belfast operation was grounded at the end of the summer. Edinburgh has been popular with leisure flyers, students, servicemen and women, and some business folk. But the lack of a day round trip made it inconvenient for business. It was a similar disappointment a few years ago when the Irish-based airline EUjet went belly-up after stretching itself over too many services.

[Business sense, and common sense, meant that Flybe reserved its prime slots at Manchester, Edinburgh and Belfast for the flights that they knew were going to be full. This meant that flights offering same day turnaround were not available for Manston. This is simply another example of success breeding success, and the devil take the hindmost. This is a problem that Manston will always face - they will have to make the most of the scraps and crumbs offered to them, at least to start with.]

So despite the smiles on the ebullient airport CEO Charles Buchanan, Manston has a problem with scheduled passenger services. What message does Flybe's decision send to other would-be operators? Manston has no difficulty with freight - including horses through its new equine centre - and charter flights to holiday places in the summer do pretty well. Car parking is a breeze. Two minutes after unloading the boot, you are in the terminal.

[Manston has the same difficulty with freight as it does with passengers – not enough. The holiday charter flights are seasonal, and few in number. The ease of parking and rapid access to the terminal are both a direct result of Manston being a tiny airport. If Manston does grow in line with its business plan, to the point where it's handling 3 million passengers in 2018, the car park will have to be larger, the walk will be longer, and checking in will be take longer. This is the downside of growth.]

Yet there just doesn’t seem to be a big enough market for scheduled services. Why is this? OK, the downturn has not helped but there must surely be something more fundamental than that. One factor is constrained night-time flying. Thanet council should back the airport's modest demands, despite opposition from some residents. It would, after all, be good for jobs and local people desperately need them. Manston ought to be the solution to over-crowding at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted. But the Kent terminal with one of the longest runways in the UK has been largely overlooked in official reports, even though senior Kent people are always talking up its credentials.

[The long-standing ban on scheduled night flights is not what prevents the airport being a success. Easyjet went to Southend airport – which doesn't have night flights. London City airport and Belfast airport, both very successful, are shut overnight.

The airport's demands are not modest – they are asking for an unlimited number of flights between 11pm and 7am. The only restriction they are suggesting is between 11:30pm and 6am.

There is no evidence that night flights would be good for jobs – quite the reverse. The 3,000 jobs that Manston says it will create by 2018 is an absurd overestimate. The few hundred jobs that it might create will be easily exceeded by the number of jobs lost in the local tourism industry.

Incidentally, the length of Manston runway is no longer the advantage that it once was, as more efficient modern planes can take off and land in shorter distances.]

Manston’s disadvantage is that it’s more than 60 miles from London. At the eastern end of the UK, It is not surrounded by chimney pots.  But remote airports are not seen as a disadvantage by the likes of Ryanair and EasyJet who bus people miles from a cheap out-of-town terminal.

[Now at last we get to the heart of the matter. Location, location, location.

Ryanair and easyJet can take advantage of "remote airports" if and only if they are the closest airports to the passengers' ultimate destination. East Kent is not a popular destination for air passengers, London is. The huge number of passengers London attracts will inevitably and understandably use the airports that are more convenient.

So Manston loses out as an airport for arrivals, and it also loses out as an airport for departures. Again it's down to location. If you draw a 30 mile circle around any successful passenger airport, you will find that the circle is full of people. If you draw a 30 mile circle around Manston, you will find that 75% of it is full of seawater. There aren't enough people living near enough Manston for it to succeed.

To be a successful passenger airport, you don't need night flights, you need passengers.]

Roads like the Thanet Way are pretty good but potential customers from South East London probably think they are worse than they are. So make it easy.  A Manston Parkway station and dedicated high-speed railway –a “Manston Express?” – would make a huge difference. The Regional Growth Fund allocated some welcome cash for a track upgrade. For a fraction of the cost of a Boris Island or Foster's Grain proposal, upgraded links would transform Manston's image. It would be great to see politicians "getting it" in 2012.

[Manston airport and KCC applied to the Regional Growth Fund for £10 million to build a Parkway station (and a £600,000 sweetener to persuade KLM to use the airport). They were turned down flat. The government decided that the forecast number of passengers did not justify a station, and in any case the spur to Manston airport would slow down the trains on the recently upgraded line to Ramsgate.]

But the sad truth at the moment is that investors - and other scheduled operators - will be wary of committing to a terminal that keeps suffering setbacks.

The Business Blog, Trevor Sturgess 28th Dec 2011

CPRE says night flights at Manston will not boost business

The campaign group says night flights could actually damage Thanet’s economic growth. Protect Kent, the Campaign to Protect Rural England’s county branch, says there is little evidence that night flights at Manston Airport will significantly help the local economy. Campaigns manager Andrew Ogden said:

“The fact that Flybe are pulling out in March because they cannot fill planes is damning proof of the lack of demand for flights out of Manston. We simply cannot see how allowing night flights will help Manston grow as a passenger airport, and therefore generate both jobs and economic sustainability for the area.”

Business leaders in Thanet, including the chamber of commerce, recently called for the night flight plans to be given the go ahead by Thanet council. They argued it would be the only way the airport has a commercial future after the low cost airline Flybe pulled out of running domestic passenger flights.

The charity says the plans could actually damage the area’s growing tourism industry. Mr Ogden added:

“We consider that the only reason for night flights is to bring in more freight. This is not the kind of business that Thanet needs, as it will not employ the inflated numbers of people that Infratil [the airport’s owners] and business leaders are claiming it will.”

“We ask that there be a full and unrestricted public consultation before any night flights are allowed. This should be open and transparent, with all the facts available. This will enable the people of East Kent to weigh up the benefits and disadvantages of night flights and lobby Thanet District Council accordingly. It is only right they be given this opportunity, as it is their communities and environment that will be significantly affected by the implementation of night flights.”

kentnews 11th Jan 2012

David Foley backs night flights

As part of the continuing PR offensive, Manston airport has roped in David Foley to bang the drum for night flights, as if they're not noisy enough already. The local papers are describing David Foley as "business leaders", despite the fact that there is very obviously just one of him. More of this in another post.

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News that the airline operator Flybe is scrapping Edinburgh service sparks new demands for more flexible flight schedules. 

Business leaders in Thanet have demanded that night flights be given the go ahead at Manston airport in order to attract passenger airlines after Flybe confirmed it was to scrap its service to Edinburgh in March. The firm said the route was not proving financially viable – thus delivering the latest blow to the terminal as it looks to establish itself within the mass market.

David Foley from Thanet and East Kent Chamber of Commerce said:

“Flybe has been a very good user at Manston and has brought in a new dimension but it is not the only airline in the world. If we can get an international carrier in then that will dwarf the few domestic flights Flybe operated.”

Flybe also cancelled its Manchester service from the airport last year. In 2005, budget airline EUjet launched a host of services at Manston, but they collapsed due to a lack of demand.

The airport’s owner Infratil has put in an application to Thanet council for more flights between 11pm and 7am. It says by 2018 they would average around 3.2 flights per night, but campaign groups are opposed to the idea.

Mr Foley argued airport expansion should be given the go ahead because it offered Thanet the best employment opportunities in the medium term. He said:

“The airport says it will deliver 3,000 jobs by 2018. The increase in air passenger duty is not good for airlines but it does put a greater emphasis on airports that can serve northern European hub airports. Manston is in a wonderful position to do that. Infratil is a very different company from EUjet. It has deeper pockets. It has pumped around £40m into Manston. It has been a benign investor in the best sense of the word. It is in the best position to plan its future strategy.”

Manston airport chief executive Charles Buchanan said:

“The decision by Flybe reinforces the need for the airport’s proposals for limited and managed scheduled night-time flights to be agreed with Thanet District Council in order to compete with other national and regional airports.”

Thanet council leader Cllr Clive Hart, said:

“This is obviously disappointing news and will have an impact on the east Kent economy, but in the current economic climate, we can understand Flybe’s decision. As we have made clear, the council will be consulting local people on the issue of night flights in the New Year.”

kentnews.co.uk 1st Jan 2012

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If we are to maintain our schools, emergency services, social services, defence commitments and all the heavy demands we place on government at all levels, it is essential that we support the businesses that fund the public sector. This is particularly true in Thanet which has the highest unemployment in Kent.

The airport at Manston represents our best bet to create sustainable, worthwhile jobs in Thanet in the medium and long term. Inward investors with £40 million to spend on improving our infrastructure are in short supply. We must cherish Infratil and remind the doubters that Manston Airport has been in operation since 1915.

David Foley, Thanet & East Kent Chamber.

thisiskent 17th Nov 2011

That was then...

The airport's CEO Charles Buchanan is delighted:

"Fantastic - Flybe is here to stay! This is a massive vote of confidence in Manston by the UK's number one domestic airline and confirms its commitment to Kent."

Manston Airport website

Flybe quit Manston: analysis

Too few passengers

Flybe's decision makes it absolutely clear – Manston does not have the makings of a successful passenger airport.

The current owners of Manston airport (Infratil) have always pushed the story that they want Manston to be a mixed passenger and freight airport. We know that Ryanair and easyJet have both examined Manston airport carefully in the past. They both came to the same conclusion: if Manston airport was 10 miles further West, it would have a large enough catchment area to have the potential to succeed as a passenger airport.

However, given that it is not practical to move the airport, the fact remains that 75% of its catchment area lies in the North Sea. This is a simple and inescapably obvious fact that has been overlooked or ignored by Manston's owners ever since it was privatised.

Too few airlines

Infratil has also always made it clear that the passenger element of the passenger/freight mix would be provided by the low-cost no-frills carriers such as Ryanair, easyJet and Flybe. As far as we know, Ryanair has not seriously considered operating out of Manston. Easyjet would presumably have considered Manston before finally choosing Southend airport this summer as the base for its new routes to Europe.

Flybe has run routes from Manston to Manchester, Edinburgh and Belfast. The Manchester flights were scratched earlier this year, and now Flybe has decided to scratch the Edinburgh and Belfast flights. It is worth noting that all three routes showed realistic promise – they are well-populated, have active business centres, and are tourist attractions in their own right.

Too small a catchment area

In all fairness, the timings and frequencies of the flights as scheduled could have been better, but Flybe presented Manston with a reasonable chance to succeed. Manston failed because 75% of its catchment area lies in the North Sea, and fish don't have much use for planes. As Flybe's spokesman put it:

It is fair to say that Manston is one of the airports with the smaller catchment areas in the United Kingdom, and you have Gatwick not too far away.

Just six weeks ago, shortly after Flybe's second profit warning in five months, Flybe's chairman Jim French declared an end to the boom in domestic air travel and reported a deepening drop in demand, citing a "very, very flat situation across the industry".

Both Flybe and the airport have referred to the tough economic conditions that have caused Flybe to review its 200 routes, but the brutally simple fact is that it is only the Manston routes that have been cut.

Night flights

Nowhere in any of their press releases do Flybe make any reference to night flights having any bearing on their decision. The Edinburgh and Belfast flights are being scratched because there weren't enough passengers, despite the active marketing in Scotland and Kent, which Flybe has attributed to the challenging economic environment.

It is worth noting, incidentally, that Flybe operate a number of routes out of George Best Belfast City Airport. They fly to Aberdeen, Benbecula, Birmingham, Bristol, Campbeltown, Cardiff, Dundee, East Midlands, Edinburgh, Exeter, Glasgow International, Guernsey, Inverness, Islay, Isle of Man, Jersey, Kirkwall, Leeds Bradford, London Gatwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Newquay, Norwich, Southampton, Stornoway, Sumburgh, Tiree, and Wick - and that's just the UK destinations.

George Best Belfast City Airport has no night flights, as flights are banned between 9:30pm and 6:30am. A ban on night flights does not prevent an airport being successful - but an absence of passengers does. Which brings us neatly to Charles Buchanan's assertion in the recent Gazette article that:

The decision by Flybe reinforces the need for the airport's proposals for limited and managed scheduled night-time flights to be agreed with Thanet District Council in order to compete with other national and regional airports.

Flybe's decision does nothing of the sort. Flybe's decision is simply further evidence that Manston cannot attract and retain passenger airlines for the simple reason that it cannot provide enough passengers.

Manston's ambition to be a mixed passenger and freight airport can never be realised. Manston is hoping to attract more freight business by being open throughout the night, and thus becoming the only 24-hour freight airport in the south-east. That's what the night flights are for - they are not for easy access to cheap sunshine holidays, they are for night freight.

Flybe quit Manston

Flybe has said it will not be flying from Manston International Airport in Kent after March. The airline said it would cease operations there at the end of the winter season. Flybe launched its Manston to Edinburgh service in May 2010. Flybe spokesman Niall Duffy said:

"We tried different routes and the numbers simply weren't there. It's impossible to sustain routes without the passengers.

Unfortunately for the Manston services it was just impossible to look at those passenger numbers and think that we could sustain the kind of difficulties we were facing.

It is fair to say that Manston is one of the airports with the smaller catchment areas in the United Kingdom, and you have Gatwick not too far away."

The airline said passengers booked on flights after March would be contacted by Flybe and offered a full refund or tickets on alternative flights.

BBC online 22nd Dec 2011

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Flybe is axing its services between Kent International Airport and Edinburgh. The shock move, which takes effect from the end of the winter season on March 25, has been blamed on the tough economic climate. The Edinburgh service was regarded as Manston's jewel in the crown.

The decision is a blow to Manston's reputation which also suffered when Flybe axed its Manchester service because of weak passenger demand. Senior Kent figures have been promoting expansion at Manston rather than back controversial proposals for a hub airport on or off the Kent coast.

kentonline 22nd Dec 2011

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Flybe will end its flights at Manston airport on March 25 and passengers who have already booked a flight on the summer schedule will either be fully refunded or booked onto a flight departing from another airport, the IoT Gazette reports. In a statement, Simon Lilley, Flybe's director of marketing said:

"It is with regret that Flybe can confirm it will cease its operations from Manston International Airport with effect from the end of the winter season on March 25, 2012. Flybe carefully reviews the viability of all our 200-plus routes on a regular basis looking not only at passenger numbers but also at external cost pressures. This is done not only to monitor where we can offer increased regularity on a given route but also where passenger numbers make a flight uneconomic.

Our ongoing commitment to Manston has been reliant on the success of the Edinburgh service that we launched in May 2010.  Despite extensive marketing of this route both in Scotland and throughout SE England, the challenging economic environment with which we are all faced has meant passenger numbers remain at unsustainable levels, and are insufficient to financially justify its continued operation.

All passengers who have booked flights online for next summer will be contacted by Flybe and offered a full refund or re-accommodated on alternate flights; and in the interim we look forward to welcoming on board those passengers who continue to book and use our Edinburgh service from now through to the end of March."

The decision comes after Flybe axed flights from Manston to Manchester due to lack of passenger demand.

Airport bosses have urged Thanet council to support Manston's plans for night flights, on the grounds that it needs greater flexibility to compete with other airports. Charles Buchanan, Chief Executive of Manston Airport, said:

"While obviously disappointed, we understand that the decision has been taken as part of Flybe's ongoing review of its 200 routes. Launched in May 2010, the service initially performed well. However, like many other internal UK routes it suffered from the economic downturn. Inbound and outbound passenger numbers, although initially good have unfortunately tailed off as household budgets and discretionary spend has tightened.

The decision by Flybe reinforces the need for the airport's proposals for limited and managed scheduled night-time flights to be agreed with Thanet District Council in order to compete with other national and regional airports. Without the ability to compete it will be very difficult to secure a commitment from other airlines to base aircraft at Manston and deliver a truly sustainable regional airport which will underpin the future health of the East Kent economy."

Commenting on the decision, Sandra Matthews-Marsh, Chief Executive at Visit Kent, said:

"This is disappointing news for East Kent in a very challenging economic climate for the travel and tourism industry."

Flybe also runs a service between Manston and Belfast – which will also end, said a company spokesman.

thisiskent 22nd Dec 2011

Flybe says UK's domestic air travel boom is over

Flybe has declared an end to the boom in domestic air travel as the regional airline reported a deepening drop in demand for British routes.

The Exeter-based carrier runs domestic services which include Manchester to Norwich and Aberdeen to Gatwick, but the fallibility of its business to UK demand has been underlined by two profit warnings this year.

Flybe avoided another surprise on earnings on Wednesday as it published first-half results, though an increase of pre-tax profits in the six months to 30 September of £8.2m to £14.3m had been forecast to be significantly higher at one point this year. Before the profit warnings, Flybe had been expecting to make £36m.

As well as the poor profits performance, the results contained a further admission of weakness in the UK market. Flybe said winter bookings were down 1% compared with last year, confirming a deterioration of sales on top of an already poor outlook. Only last month Flybe had forecast a 1% increase in winter bookings. It carries 7 million passengers a year.

At the time of its second profit warning Flybe said it was still gauging whether the decline in UK travel – which accounts for seven out of 10 Flybe passengers – was due to a faltering economy or a fundamental move away from domestic routes. Jim French, Flybe's long-standing chairman and chief executive, said the fall appeared to be deep-set. "This is a trend we have picked up across the industry You have got to look at the industry, not just Flybe. I think we are seeing a very, very flat situation."

French added that, according to the Civil Aviation Authority, domestic air travel had fallen 20% over the past four years, as an over-supplied market bottomed out. "It is a combination of the economic and business cutbacks over the period, but I truthfully think that the market was over-supplied five to 10 years ago," said French, pointing to a subsequent scaling down of domestic routes by Ryanair and easyJet, as well as the sale of British Airways' domestic operations to Flybe in 2006.

Flybe has emphasised plans to expand in Europe, including the acquisition of Finncomm Airlines in a joint venture with Finnish carrier Finnair.

According to the Civil Aviation Authority, UK airports handled 48.7 million passengers in 2007, but that number fell to 38 million last year – a fall of 22%. Rail appears to have been a major beneficiary and competitor. The Association of Train Operating Companies said intercity rail journeys had risen by 19% since 2007, while on the top 10 domestic air routes, including London to Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow, rail's market share versus airlines has risen from 32% to 44% since 2007. "In what is a highly competitive market, better services and more cheap tickets are encouraging more and more people to choose rail to travel between the UK's main cities," said ATOC.

Shares in Flybe rose 2p to 70p, despite the gloomier UK outlook. Analysts said the airline's tough action on costs – the cost of flying a single passenger rose slightly – had calmed investors.

"Demand looks as weak as it did last month, but the saving grace is a tight grip on costs, which are hardly growing at all," said Douglas McNeill, analyst at Charles Stanley Securities.

Guardian 9th Nov 2011

Q: What DOESN'T connect George Best, John Lennon and Robin Hood?

A: Flybe

George Best is Belfast's airport, John Lennon is Liverpool's and Robin Hood is Doncaster's. Flybe used to have scheduled flights connecting them, but that was before their share price fell through the floor after their recent profit warning.

In Charles Buchanan's position, I would be rather by worried by the second paragraph of Flybe's statement...

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The Flybe service from George Best Belfast City Airport to John Lennon Liverpool will be axed at the end of the month. The Belfast to Doncaster flight will also cease on 30 October. The airline operates three return flights daily from Belfast to Liverpool and one to Doncaster.

Shares in Flybe plunged by 36% on Wednesday after it said there had been a "significant slowdown in sales" across its UK domestic network. In May, the Exeter-based airline warned of the impact of the spending slowdown, as well as unveiling a £3 fuel surcharge for all flights which came into force last month. The airline told BBC Online:

"Flybe can confirm that with effect from 30 October 2011 it will cease operating services from George Best Belfast City Airport to Liverpool and Doncaster. Flybe carefully reviews the viability of all its 200 plus routes looking not only at passenger numbers but also at external cost pressures such as the extortionate Air Passenger Duty system being levied on the domestic aviation sector where its passengers pay twice as much tax as Europe-bound travellers.

This ongoing monitoring of our routes enables us to both increase regularity where demand exists, but also highlights when passenger numbers make a flight economically and environmentally harder to justify."

Flybe's other 16 direct services from Belfast which include flights to London, Gatwick, Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh and Southampton are not affected. The company has unveiled its second profits warning in five months. Shares fell 40% to 60p - a total fall of 80% on the flotation price of 295p in December 2010.

BBC Online 6th Oct 2011