Thoughts from the think tanks

A couple of think tanks (Policy Exchange and Centre Forum) have got their heads together to produce a thoughtful and thought-provoking analysis of possible solutions to aviation capacity in the south-east.

The best approach would be to build a new four runway Heathrow, immediately west of the current site. These new runways would replace the existing runways. This would be straightforward to construct, and relatively low cost by the standards of hub airports. A combination of tightening permitted noise classes, ending night flights and landing narrow bodied planes more steeply makes it almost certain that this airport would be significantly quieter than the existing airport, despite catering for almost twice as many flights.

Leaving the airport where it is works for air traffic control. It also works for the wider economy: companies that have located near to the airport because they need to be near the airport do not have to move. The design of airport proposed here would be operationally efficient for both passengers and airlines, and would be the world’s best hub.

Bigger and Quieter: The right answer for aviation

Synopsis

Bigger and Quieter: The right answer for aviation examines all of the options for increasing airport capacity in the UK. It supports placing four runways immediately west of the current Heathrow site. This would double the existing capacity to 130million passengers, cementing it as Europe’s premier hub. If this was politically unfeasible, then a four runway airport at Luton would be the next best option.

The report says that the UK needs a new hub airport located in the South East which has spare capacity to accommodate the likely increase in demand, especially to cope with the rise in middle class travellers from emerging markets.

It doesn’t rule out the current proposal to build a third runway to the north of Heathrow, but claims that less people would be affected by aircraft noise if the four runways were instead located 3km to the west of Heathrow.

To reduce the effect of noise the report proposes:

• A complete ban on the noisiest aircraft at all times, rather than just at night. Airlines would have to ensure their fleet complied with new decibel measures by the time the new runways were ready for use
• Imposing a complete ban on night flights. The increase in the number of slots available would mean no planes would arrive or depart between 11pm and 6:15am
• Landing narrow bodied planes at a steeper angle as they already do at London City airport. This again means they are higher over any part of West London on their descent. For example, a plane would be 925m rather than 260m above Hounslow
• In addition, moving the airport west means planes will be higher over London than at present

Because the proposal reuses existing terminals and infrastructure, the price is likely to be around half that of Foster’s proposal for an estuary airport. Approximately 700 properties would need to be demolished compared to the 1,400 that would need to go to make way for the estuary airport. The cost and ease of travel to Heathrow as well as the fact many businesses are already located near the current airport makes it the most suitable site.

The report says that other than Heathrow, Luton is the best located London airport. It is close to a high quality, four track rail line that goes to London St Pancras in 21 minutes as well as to key cities in the Midlands. It is also close to the M1, arguably Britain’s most important road. If expanding Heathrow is politically unfeasible, Leunig proposes a four runway Luton Hub with two terminals, the first adjoining the M1, the second the Midland Main Line rail route. The disadvantage of Luton over Heathrow is that the terrain is much more challenging, and the location is not as strong.

The paper rules out:

• Foster + Partners estuary airport (aka “Boris Island”) as it is too hard to get to for too many people. The environmental and construction challenges are also much harder to overcome than at Heathrow
• Connecting Heathrow and Gatwick to become a single hub. The two airports are 25 miles apart meaning that a direct high speed rail link would cost approximately £15 billion
• A four runway airport at Gatwick. The costs are higher than for Heathrow, and the location is not as good. Instead Gatwick should consolidate its position as a good quality base for point to point traffic geared towards leisure travel and short haul flights
• A four runway airport at Stansted. Like the estuary airport proposal, Stansted suffers from a poor location, with a weak hinterland and slow connections to London and the rest of the country

Friday, 05 October 2012. 

Read the FULL report below:

Bigger and Quieter

More airport expansion

NEWSFLASH: the real reasons Flybe quit Manston - click HERE

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Well, well - here's another airport in the south-east that's looking to expand. Their proposal for 57% growth will be rushed through public consultation in just 4 weeks. They are promising to continue to be a "good neighbour". They say that the impact on the environment noise and road traffic flows will be "fully evaluated".

They even say that they will be submitting a planning application. Ahem. Nudge, nudge. Wouldn't it be nice if all airports had planning permission?

Following the BBC news item below, you will find a report from the trade press which talks about "6.5 million passengers" creating "6,000 jobs". This mythical golden ratio of 1,000 jobs per million passengers should be familiar to regular readers of this blog.

And who's peddling these wildly optimistic numbers? The propeller-heads' favourite number-mongers – York Aviation. Step forward, take a bow and your customary large cheque.

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Luton expansion plans

Luton airport -  the UK’s 5th biggest –  has announced a 4 week consultation on its plans that will start on 6th February.  It has plans to increase the annual number of passengers.

It would handle 18 million passengers a year under the plan, up from 11.5 million. Work “can be achieved within the airport’s existing boundary and using the existing runway”.  Once the consultation ends, the airport hopes to submit a planning application in April. The airport says:

“Impacts on the environment, noise and road traffic flows will be fully evaluated as part of the process.”

The airport announced plans for road improvements in November to reduce anticipated congestion at the time of the Olympics. Some of the work is paid for by public funds.

AirportWatch 16th Jan 2012

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London Luton Airport hopes to boost passenger numbers

Luton airport has announced plans to boost passenger numbers by nearly seven million a year.  [18 million would be more like 9 million over the 2010 figure]. 

Proposals released by London Luton Airport Limited (LLAL) aim to also create 6,000 jobs. The airport, the UK’s fifth biggest, would handle 18 million passengers a year under the plan, up from 11.5 million. [Highest was 10.2 million in 2008.  Down to 8.7 million in 2010]. 

Its 57% growth bid comes after claims of an air travel capacity shortage in south east England, by 2020. A four-week public consultation will begin on the 6 February and will include a series of public exhibitions around the region.

The project, known as “futureLuToN:Optimisation”, has already been introduced to the airport’s consultative committee, which represents local residents, councils and community groups. In a statement, LLAL said the growth “can be achieved within the airport’s existing boundary and using the existing runway” and it will consider what modifications and improvements will be required.

LLAL Chair, Councillor Robin Harris said the airport needed to be ready to “embrace market demand in the future” but it would “listen carefully” before submitting a planning application.

“The benefits that will flow from the airport’s development will be realised in the local, regional and national economies. We are committed to ensure the airport will continue to be a good neighbour and any growth in passenger numbers is managed in a responsible manner. Impacts on the environment, noise and road traffic flows will be fully evaluated as part of the process.”

LLAL has said it intends to submit a planning application for consideration in or around April, at which time a further statutory consultation will be undertaken by Luton Borough Council as planning authority.

BBC online 16th Jan 2012

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Luton Airport to expand to 18mppa

London Luton Airport has announced “ambitious plans” to optimise capacity at the gateway by around 57% so it will be able to handle at least 18 million passengers a year by 2020. The gateway said that plans to increase capacity by an additional 6.5 million passengers would take shape using the existing runway and within the airports current boundaries.

According to the airport owner – London Luton Airport Limited (LLAL) – the gateway’s current maximum capacity is 11.5 million passengers with 9.6 million expected up to the end of March 2012. In the calendar year for 2012 the airport is expecting to handle 10.2 million passengers.

The expansion project seeks to optimise the capacity of the existing airport and LLAL will consider what modifications and improvements will be required. This will include looking at the aircraft taxiways, aprons, piers and parking stands, the road network, airport car parking and the passenger terminal. Meanwhile, LLAL has estimated that the plans could create up to 6,000 new jobs and generate millions of pounds of investment.

The project – called ‘futureLuToN:Optimisation’ – was introduced today (January 16) to the airport’s consultative committee representing local residents, councils and community groups. A pre-planning application public consultation will begin on Monday February 6, when plans will be presented in Luton and around the wider area. The four-week consultation process will run until March 5 and will include a series of public exhibitions around the region.

A dedicated website – www.futureLuToN.co.uk – will also be launched for interested parties to view proposals and provide their feedback on the airport’s plans. Robin Harris, chair of LLAL, said: 

“We’re at the very beginning of a journey that builds on the tremendous success we have seen through the last decade and will ultimately bring huge benefits to Luton and the wider region – with jobs and much-needed income. We will consult actively and listen carefully ahead of submitting a planning application to enhance this important people’s asset but we must be ready to embrace market demand in the future.

Our plans that will go out for public consultation in February are ambitious. While we will have to work hard to meet our aspirations, I am encouraged by the vast majority of people and businesses in Luton and the wider region who believe strongly that the airport is a terrific asset for job creation and our biggest wealth creator.”

London Luton Airport is the UK’s fifth biggest airport. It is a headquarters for easyJet and is a major base for Wizz Air, Ryanair and Monarch.

Luton Airport added that it would also consider expanding the airport further to be able to handle 30 million passengers a year but added that “this does not form part of the proposals being consulted on in February”.

Meanwhile, it is estimated that Luton will drive an additional 440 direct on-site jobs for every extra million passengers that pass through the airport, and as a result, an estimated additional 1,750 indirect jobs will be created by the airport’s plans for it to increase capacity to 18 million passengers per year, according to York Aviation.

London Luton Airport is operated by Abertis-owned London Luton Airport Operations Limited (LLAOL).

Airport World 16th Jan 2012

Location, location, location matters for airports too

Manston isn't Outer London. It's out of London.

Well, there are several airports that have leapt on the global branding bandwagon and smuggled the word 'London' into their name, with varying degrees of geographical accuracy.

(A special mention must go to "London Ashford Airport": 60 miles from London, 13 miles from Ashford, 1 mile from Lydd. It seems the greater the distance, the more prominent the billing - it's full title is actually "Jupiter Brazil London Ashford Airport".)

So, JBLA to one side, what are we left with? Well, starting from where London actually is, you can see that London City is pretty much a slam-dunk - 9/10 for accuracy. Spiralling out clockwise from the south, we have Gatwick, Heathrow, Luton, Stansted, Southend and Manston. Yes, folks, Manston's even further from London-land than the fantasists at Lydd.

'Location, location, location' does matter and this seems to be a persistent blind spot for many when it comes to discussing Manston's viability. It may have a lovely long runway, but it's in the wrong place.

Draw a circle with a 20, 30 or 50 mile radius around all the 'London' airports, and Manston's circle will have the least land in it - because it's on a peninsula. In terms of population within the catchment area, it may just nudge ahead of Lydd, but will always be well behind the others. It's not a great place for a high volume passenger airport. Not that great for freight either, being so far from the highest densities of people and industry.

On with your thinking cap, dear reader, for soon I will be asking for your best efforts on two topics: how would you make a sustainable success out of Manston as an airport; and how would you make a sustainable success out of the Manston site as a non-airport.