Transport Select Committee - public hearing

We submitted our written evidence to the committee in October 2014. On February 2nd, we went along to Portcullis House (just across the road from the Houses of Parliament), to do our bit.

For you.

Here you can watch the committee in action. We start with:

• Pauline Bradley (Director, Manston Skyport Limited)
• Alastair Welch (Interim Director, Kent Airport Limited)
• Alan Mackinnon (Interim Director, Kent Airport Limited)
• George Yerrall (Partner, RiverOak Investment Corp)
• Tony Freudmann (Partner, RiverOak Investment Corp)

At about 51 minutes in, we move on to:

• Paul Carter (Leader, Kent County Council)
• David Smith (Director of Economic Development, Kent County Council)
• Councillor Iris Johnston (Leader, Thanet District Council)
• Madeline Homer (Acting Chief Executive, Thanet District Council)
• Paul Cook (Interim Director of Corporate Resources, Thanet District Council)
• Sir Roger Gale MP

At about 1 hour 28 minutes in, we get:

• Ros McIntyre (Chair, No Night Flights)
• Dr Beau Webber (Chair, Save Manston Airport Group)
• Angie Sutton (Why Not Manston?)

Discussion from the 02/02/15 0 - 50:00 Pauline Bradley, Director, Manston Skyport Limited, Alastair Welch, Interim Director, Kent Airport Limited, Alan Mackinnon, Interim Director, Kent Airport Limited, George Yerrall, Partner, RiverOak Investment Corp, Tony Freudmann, Partner, RiverOak Investment Corp 50:00 - 1:28:00 Paul Carter, Leader, Kent County Council, David Smith,

Transport Select Committee - written submission

The Department for Transport has set up a committee to examine policy and make recommendations to the Government on the role of smaller airports. To our astonishment, they decided to spend an entire session looking at Manston, even though it's shut. Before the hearing, we submitted our written evidence.

Select Committee Response - October 2014 by NoNightFlights

Ann Gloag and Cllr Iris Johnston to meet in London

A high level delegation from Thanet Council will meet businesswoman Ann Gloag in London on Thursday after she shut Manston Airport. The long-awaited meeting will be led by Thanet council leader Cllr Iris Johnston, together with her deputy Cllr Richard Nicholson, acting council chief executive Madeline Homer, and a legal representative.

It is the crunch get-together that the council, MPs, businesses and organisations, plus former Manston employees and residents has been urging for many weeks. Cllr Johnston said:

“We are going to see Mrs Gloag and to outline the situation as we see it and to hear in person what she has to say. We will ask her for her reasons for declining offers that have been made re the airport and any updates on her decision that led to the closure and loss of jobs. She has treated me with courtesy before when we spoke on the phone and I am glad she had made time in her busy schedule to meet with us.”

Cllr Johnston described the meeting as “critical for the future of the airport.” She added:

“From an economic development point it is vital for Thanet to tell our potential investors that we have our own airport.”

Cllr Johnson said has received a petition of almost 8,000 signatures urging the district council to compulsorily purchase Manston. She added:

“We are exploring all avenues. A CPO is a possibility we will look at but it is a complicated procedure for a local authority and we will need a watertight arrangement with a third party if we are going to proceed this way.”

The American company RiverOak tried to buy the airport; its chief executive Steve DeNardo and fellow directors have reaffirmed their desire to buy the site, and have met with Thanet MPs Sir Roger Gale and Laura Sandys. The company has had three offers turned down by the site’s owners including an offer made on the day of closure which met the asking price.

Cllr Johnson, who is meeting East Kent and Medway authority chief executives and leaders, and Thanet Regeneration Board among others, to keep Manston alive, said expanding the current enterprise zone from the Richborough corridor into Thanet to include Manston would be essential to attract investors to the area. She added:

“We are all trying our very best to ensure that Manston airport has a future.”

She plans to meet with Kent County Council leader Cllr Paul Carter on Friday, July 4, after her meeting with Mrs Gloag.

Kent Online 30th Jun 2014

A reader writes

I should like to make a few points, of which Cllr Carter should be informed! Firstly, he says that Manston's runway is 2,752m. When I checked, it was 2,658m. Heathrow has two runways - 3,500m and 3,570m, with Gatwick's one at 3,750m. So nowhere near comparable.

He says that Manston "is able to cater for all modern jet aircraft"; that's all very well, but a fully-laden 747 or 767 could not safely take off because there is no room to abort a take off in case of problems. If you remember, an Afghan DC-8 almost came a cropper on 11th August 2010 when, as it was later discovered, it tried to take off 25,000 lbs overweight! (So where are our CAA checks? Who was responsible? How could this happen?) It only just blundered into the sky after gouging grooves in the grass at the end of the runway, just before it could have collided with the traffic on the bit of the B2190 between the Prospect and Manston Road roundabouts! Details of the AAIB investigation can be found here: www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/1670.pdf. If it had been taking off over Ramsgate, it could have ploughed into the traffic on the Haine Road. So, safe, is it?

I don't want night flights, but I'm not against the airport succeeding. But why don't people look at past history? (Sorry - no one ever does!) No one has succeeded with pie-in-the-sky, fantasy ideas. It is a small airfield, not a major airport! It could succeed as a part cargo/part holiday destination airfield. Small aircraft, such as the Fokkers that had European destinations, could attract most of our limited catchment area. I note you say that people living within reach of Heathrow, Gatwick, Luton, Stansted, will obviously go there because of the choice of destinations. Agreed. We need someone to take over Manston who can see it for what it is and accept its limited capabilities. But now, I suppose, I'm looking at pie in the sky!

S.B.

KCC's contribution, for what it's worth

Boldly Stepping...

KCC are happily throttling themselves with management speak and business jargon, which is why some of their worst ideas are dressed up as "Bold Steps". The latest in the series is "Bold Steps for Aviation" which is described as

"a discussion paper which suggests how the UK's aviation capacity needs could be met without the need to develop a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary.  It is intended to contribute to the national debate and is published in response to the recent proposals from Lord Foster and the Mayor of London."

Like it or not, KCC's voice will carry some weight in the interminable debate about future flight capacity in the south-east, and this document is what they're thinking of saying on our behalf. If you would like to make any comments on the document (which you can download HERE), please email them to aviation@kent.gov.uk.

Here's an excerpt that gives KCC's (i.e. Paul Carter's) take on the future role of Manston [with comments]:

4.2.1 Increased use of Manston Airport

In Kent, Manston Airport has the potential to make a significant contribution, providing excellent connections to Europe destinations and reduced flight times. Manston has one of the longest runways in Europe (at 2,752 metres) and is therefore able to cater for all modern jet aircraft. The airport operates in Class G airspace, outside of the London Control Zone, and has sufficient capacity for the 4.7 mppa and 400,000 tonnes of freight anticipated by the Airport Master Plan by 2033 (Manston Airport Master Plan, 2009). Its local environmental impacts are greatly reduced by its location on the Thanet Peninsula, with much of its uncrowded flight path located over water to the east of Ramsgate. There is a fully-equipped passenger terminal facility with a capacity of around 1 mppa subject to the aircraft used and scheduling arrangements.

[Manston has the 14th longest runway in the UK. Modern jet aircraft don't need runways this long - efficient design means they can take of and land on shorter runways. The massive old freighters like the Antonovs do need long runways. The 2009 Master Plan also forecast 206,000 passengers a year by 2012 - it's less than 30,000. So how do the planes get from the runway to the "uncrowded flight path" east of Ramsgate? By flying straight over Ramsgate of course.]

Manston enjoys good strategic road links to London and the wider South East via the A299 dual carriageway, which joins the M2 motorway approximately 19 miles west of the airport. There are also three primary rail routes to Ramsgate, located 3 miles east of Manston, which serve the London termini of St Pancras International via domestic high speed services on High Speed One (HS1), Charing Cross and Victoria, therefore offering a total of five trains per hour during off-peak periods.

However these connections will need to be improved if Manston is to truly succeed as a regional airport. Research commissioned by KCC (through an EU funded project seeking to improve sustainable surface access to regional airports) reveals evidence that with a fixed rail link passenger numbers increase as it enables a wider catchment of people to use the airport. Newcastle Airport’s passenger numbers increased by 27% after the first full operational year of the Metro link to the airport and passenger numbers have continued to grow year on year. A station near to Manston Airport served by high speed rail services to London will increase the attractiveness of the airport to airlines and passengers.

[The potential passengers who live in and around London will STILL have excellent transport links to other airports, even if a Manston Parkway station is built.]

Line speed enhancements have been secured through a successful Regional Growth Fund bid and should be operational by 2015; and work is underway to take forward the provision of the proposed Thanet Parkway rail station, which subject to funding could also be operational by the end of 2015. KCC is also pushing for improved rail connection (using existing lines) between Ashford and Gatwick, which would link Manston to both Gatwick and Heathrow.

[The line speed enhancements save a couple of minutes. This time saving will be lost if trains stop at a Parkway station.]

Manston would strongly complement Heathrow and Gatwick as they increasingly focus on accommodating long-haul flights at the expense of domestic and near-European services. Development of Manston as a regional airport would create employment opportunities in one of England’s most disadvantaged areas; the airport’s Master Plan forecast for 2033 would see up to 6,000 additional direct and indirect jobs within the area, development for which is generally supported by the local community.

[Paul Carter is still obediently trotting out Manston's pie-in-the-sky job forecasts, despite them being rubbished by TDC's two independent consultant's reports.]

Manston out-performed by a small hole in the ground

Sad but true. The numbers are in on this summer's Open Golf Championship at Sandwich, and they make good reading for the county. The direct economic boost and indirect benefit of TV coverage are valued at £77 million.

Each Open venue hosts the tournament about every ten years, so the once-a-decade display of supreme skill at the stick-ball-hole game works out at some £7.7 million a year of identifiable benefit to Kent.

Manston's latest night flight proposal rather optimistically assesses the airport's current contribution to the local economy at £3.8 million a year - less than half the impact of the Open even when the Open isn't on!

---

Open Golf Championship 'worth £77m to Kent economy'

The Open Golf Championship in Sandwich this year was worth about £77m to Kent, researchers have said. A study commissioned by R&A (Royal & Ancient Golf Club), which runs the Open, was carried out by researchers at Sheffield Hallam University.

R&A chief executive Peter Dawson said Kent had a direct economic boost of just under £25m, and the television exposure was worth more than £50m. He said TV coverage reached nearly 500 million homes worldwide.

"That television exposure for east Kent and the whole area is worth a fortune in terms of future for the tourist industry and hopefully for inward investment too."

Kent County Council leader Paul Carter said the Open was the largest sports event the county had hosted in recent years. He said:

"It boosted the profile of the area nationally and internationally, which should help in our efforts to secure inward investment, tourism and jobs."

Mr Dawson said there were some traffic difficulties caused by large numbers of people arriving by train and delays at level crossings. R&A officials and Kent authorities were planning transport improvements for a return of the Open, he said.

The championship is played at nine venues in England and Scotland and on average is hosted by each venue every 10 years. More than 180,000 spectators attended the four-day event in July.

BBC online 24th Nov 2011

New hub airport for the south-east

Vince Cable and Alan Willett back Thames Estuary, Paul Carter backs Essex.

A Thames Estuary airport has won heavyweight backing from Business Secretary Vince Cable and one of Kent's most respected figures. With Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne expected to announce today that the government is taking more interest in the controversial plan, former Lord Lieutenant of Kent Allan Willett says it would be a wonderful opportunity for Kent.

The businessman and philanthropist who stepped down as the Queen's representative in August, believes that a new 'hub' airport for the county would transform the economy. Mr Willett, 75, the founder of a multi-million pound company Willett International, said:

"We need skilled jobs and, by God, you build an airport and you get lots of skilled jobs. Kent needs something like that.

Meanwhile, Mr Cable told business chiefs at Leeds Castle:

"I don't have anything against it. If it happens, it will probably solve a lot of problems. If it's feasible and private investors are willing to put lots of money into it, and the problems of birds, radar and over-lapping flight paths with the Dutch can be sorted out, I would have thought there's probably a good reason for it."

Kent County Council and Medway council have previously opposed the plan, preferring airport development to be at Manston. But KCC leader Cllr Carter today conceded there was a "very good business case" for a new airport while adding:

"What has to be talked about is the opportunity for an airport on the Essex side of the Thames."

kentonline 29th Nov 2011

Paul Carter: Emperor of Kent

Katherine Kerswell "Group MD" of KCC has left her £197k post. [Oh, no she hasn't! Oh, yes she has! Oh, let's see what KCC's press release says. Oh, let's not bother.] Initial rumours had Paul Carter as Leader and MD - probably not legal, and certainly not advisable. Later rumours had it that the post may simply be left vacant, as a money saving option. Either way, Cllr Carter will be the biggest fish in the pond for a while yet.

It appears that Ms Kerswell was doomed as a result of ruffling too many feathers in her reorganisation of KCC, so the Tory back-benchers conspired to oust her. Her pay-off is too large for anyone to talk about.

Another interesting idea being put about is that the recent KCC Tory leadership contest was decided on the basis of which candidate looked most likely to return Ms Kerswell to the strawberry fields of Northamptonshire. Looks like that's one pledge Paul Carter has delivered on... [rolling updates on this story...]

Here's what they said when they were all friends:

Later...

The plot thickens:

and then...

A public statement put together too hastily to have time to think of a page title:

Hmmm... What do you think happened?

Manston's dreams and nightmares

"Nostrildamus nose the future"Nostrildamus says:

• Infratil's Charles Buchanan will shortly unveil his plans to stuff our ears with plane noise 24 hours a day.
• He will brandish carrots and sticks as if they were real.
• He will repeat the mantra that the airport will have to close if the proposals aren't accepted.
• He will never say that he will close the airport - far too personal.
• He will want to distract attention from the fact that the closure of the airport is a purely commercial decision, already more than half-made.
• He will want to abdicate responsibility to 'prevailing circumstances', and shift the blame onto an 'uncooperative' local Council.
• He will alarm the Council with the threat of dozens of jobs lost if the airport closes.
• He will cajole the Council with promises of thousands of jobs created if he gets his way.
• He will present the reports he's commissioned as proof of his case, because there is nothing else that supports his claims.
• He will never say that that the night flights he's asking for won't be enough to make the airport break even, let alone become profitable.
• He will say that night flights will be the catalyst that will make the Master Plan achievable and the airport profitable.
• He will never say that every penny of profit will be repatriated to New Zealand in the most tax-efficient way possible.
• He will never admit that the Master Plan, which has missed every significant target and forecast, is a work of unachievably optimistic guesstimation.
• He will muddy the water with promises of flights to New York.
• He will not explain that the carrier (currently called Acer Airways) says it won't exist until 2013 at the earliest.

• TDC's Cllr Bayford is unaware that KCC's Leader Paul Carter is using him as a disposable human shield.
• He will continue to champion the airport as a 'good thing'.
• He will do everything he can to ensure that TDC Labour don't have a free vote on the issue.
• He will continue the fiction that TDC Conservatives will have a free vote on the issue.
• He will continue to use last minute procedural and legal ploys.
• He will seek to skew the public consultation towards a 'Yes' result.
• He will ignore a 'No' result.

• Thanet District Council denies that it holds any records of legal advice on airport planning issues, night flights or the S106 agreement in the last 10 years.
• Nostrildamus has framed copies of the legal advice TDC has received.
• The legal advice confirms that the airport is long overdue for a formal planning application, due to the incremental development over the years.
• The legal advice confirms that the intensification of use resulting from night flights would require a planning application.
• TDC dreads this: it will highlight a decade of slapdash management and craven fawning.
• The airport dreads this too: it would automatically trigger an EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) lasting a couple of years, while the airport continues to lose £5m a year.

KCC, TDC and Infratil want the night flights proposals to be rubber-stamped with the minimum of fuss.

And they don't give a toss about you.

Sticky numbers

It's been a long time coming, but the wait is nearly over. York Aviation will be publishing the second half of their report, supporting Manston's hare-brained notion that night flights will be the saving of the airport, and Thanet, and probably most of Kent.

The first part of York Aviation's report (supposedly) dealt with the economic and employment benefits of Manston getting busy - that was the carrot. The second part will cover the threat to Manston if it doesn't get the go-ahead for night flights - this is the stick.

York Aviation is an aviation lobbying group, and makes a living by coming up with numbers that make airlines and airports happy. It appears that they came up with the "thousand jobs per million passengers" nonsense that is unquestioningly trotted out to the press by Paul Carter and Charles Buchanan. When they're asking the Government for handouts, however, the numbers are suddenly very different (because they know their claims would be critically scrutinised). When they were asking for their £10m handout earlier this year, they stated categorically that Manston could handle 750,000 passengers a year, and twice the tonnage of freight it currently handles, with just 23 extra staff. Yes, that's right: twenty-three.

Here's a forecast of my own: tomorrow's offering from York Aviation will be another shining example of Alice Through The Looking Glass maths. The Yorkies have said that adding a million passengers would create a thousand jobs. Given that Manston currently carries about 30,000 passengers a year, how many jobs would be subtracted if they didn't carry any? Using dull, old-fashioned, calculator maths the answer is about 33 jobs. Using Yorkie maths, I expect the number will be much larger. Alarmingly larger.

I expect the Yorkies will present night flights as being a deal-breaker, the critical element that will allow Manston to deliver its (literally) fantastic Master Plan, with its projected millions of passengers and supposedly inevitable thousands of jobs. (In fact, the Master Plan makes no mention of any need for scheduled night flights - it only mentions the need for a mechanism to deal with the occasional delayed late arrival, which is already catered for in the S106 agreement.)

Setting this against the backdrop of the employment disaster of Pfizer's closure, York Aviation (doubtless aided and abetted by Manston's PR agency, Maxim) will seek to present Thanet District Council with the "choice" of granting night flights, or destroying Kent's economy for years to come. Of course, this is not a corner that TDC wants to be painted into. The reason TDC marked Manton's last application "return to sender", and cancelled the public consultation on the very day it was due to start, was that the application was simply too vague and opaque for anyone to make any sense of. As Cllr Bayford said at the time:

I believe that, before residents have their say, they need to know more detail and have a full understanding of exactly how many aircraft movements are being discussed. That information is difficult to gauge from the proposals that have been put to us, partly because of its technical nature and this needs further work. I also believe that the proposed upper level of activity is too high and needs to be reconsidered. I am not prepared to start a public consultation until these issues have been resolved. I am pleased to say that the airport has agreed to review these issues.

That was 1st November 2010. Since then, Manston has conspicuously failed to produce any clarification of its numbers, or to "reconsider" them. If night flights really are that important to the airport's future, surely Manston would have put every effort into striking a workable compromise at the earliest opportunity.